• Previous population-based studies have estimated that 14% of men and approximately 23% of women develop dementia between the ages of 45-105 years (Chêne et al., 2015). However, these studies have typically failed to include samples that are racially diverse.
• Fang et al., (2025), recently published in Nature Medicine, found that the lifetime risk of dementia was 42% at the age of 55 in a racially diverse sample. This estimate is considerably higher than previous estimates.
• Fang et al., (2025) were also able to identify at-risk populations including Black adults, women and APOE ε4 carriers, who have an even greater lifetime prevalence of dementia, ranging between 45-50%.

Dementia is associated with a significant economic burden, with costs exceeding $600 billion annually in the United States (Nandi et al., 2022). Previous literature has shown that the lifetime incidence of dementia is approximately 11-14% of men and 19-23% for women (Seshadri et al., 2007; Beiser et al., 1997); Chêne et al., 2015). However, these previous did not typically include samples that were racially diverse. 

Fang et al., (2025), recently published in Nature Medicine, estimated lifetime dementia risk using a large cohort study including 15,043 individuals, where 26.9% of the sample was Black African and 55.1% of the sample were women. Authors found that the lifetime risk of dementia after the age of 55 was 42%, which is considerably higher than previous estimates. Fang et al., (2025) were also able to identify at-risk populations including Black adults, women and APOE ε4 carriers, who have an even greater lifetime prevalence of dementia, ranging between 45-50%.

Authors also found that APOE ε4 carriers were more likely to develop dementia at a younger age compared to non-carriers. Similarly, Black adults were also more likely to develop dementia at a younger age compared with White adults. However, the lifetime risk of dementia was also significantly greater amongst Black adults compared with White adults. These findings highlight the need for interventions targeting high-risk individuals. 

The full-text article can be found here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03340-9#citeas

References

Beiser, A., Au, R., McNulty, K., White, R. & D’agostino, R. Lifetime risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease: the impact of mortality on risk estimates in the Framingham Study. Neurology 49, 1498–1504 (1997).

Chêne, G. et al. Gender and incidence of dementia in the Framingham Heart Study from mid-adult life. Alzheimers Dement. 11, 310–320 (2015).

Fang, M., Hu, J., Weiss, J. et al. Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia. Nat Med 31, 772–776 (2025).

Nandi, A. et al. Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: a value of statistical life approach. EClinicalMedicine 51, 101580 (2022). 

Seshadri, S. & Wolf, P. A. Lifetime risk of stroke and dementia: current concepts, and estimates from the Framingham Study. Lancet Neurol. 6, 1106–1114 (2007).